An Epilogue (For Now)

It is finally time for me to present this documentary: Under The Dome by Chai Jing. I wanted to do so in the introduction, but saved the best for the last. 

Chai Jing, both the director and narrator, worked for China Central Television (CCTV) as an investigative reporter and host. After leaving CCTV, she undertook independent investigation into China’s air pollution problem and produced this self-financed documentary. It was uploaded on February 28, 2015, on the Saturday preceding the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC), and went viral instantaneously. It was viewed more than 150 million times over the weekend (Reuters, 2015)- as a reference, there were approx. 668 million internet users in China by June 2015 (Sina, 2015) - and stimulated heated debates - for instance, 280 million posts on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter (The Guardian, 2015).

The 104-minute documentary takes the simple form of a TED talk, with Ms. Chai given a presentation, combined with charts, interviews and footages of site visits, to a live audience. Yet its power is astonishing. The documentary is divided into three parts, each of which answers one of the following questions: What is smog? Where does it come from? And what can we do about it? In the second and third part, Chai Jing approached several sensitive topics (with honest comments from many government officials and industry insiders), including China’s urbanisation bubble and its relation to air pollution, the lack of law enforcement of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and low oil quality standards dictated by the industry itself, and further raised the question of the feasibility of opening up the currently state-owned monopolised petrochemical industry. 

Probably because of these sensitive topics and truthful comments from government officials and industry insiders, the documentary was ordered to be removed a week after. Yet also based on these and the fact that the film was first released on the website of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, alongside an interview with the Minister of Environmental Protection Chen Jining, in which he highly praised it, I personally believe that it could not have been made and released without the support of the government, or at least part of it. The government may intended to use this documentary to signal its determination in combating air pollution prior to the NPC, but did not expect such tremendous reactions. In fear of further simmering of public discussions leading to uncontrollable incidents, they took it down. 

Others may beg to differ. Either way, another, probably more important signal Under The Dome has sent is that the masses are awake. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center (2015), air pollution is the second biggest concern of Chinese people (viewed as “a big problem” by 76% of the respondents), just after corruption (84%). Some may even benefit from corruption - I mean the corrupt officials themselves - but every body breathe in the polluted air. Concerned citizens are on the move: there are brave public figures like Chai Jing who expose the problem to a wider public, but also ordinary people like my parents investing in improving air quality in their own homes and leading greener lifestyles . And as Ms. Chai has appealed, there is certainly going to be more people who exercise their right to know and to supervise the environmental governance. 

A teacher of my undergraduate studies once told me that he was surprised by how much freedom of speech the Chinese is allowed on air pollution, given that this right is generally restricted in China. This has not always been the case. Both citizens and the government have come a long way since the outbreak of the problem in 2012/2013. After I first watched Under the Dome, I thought of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson, which sparkled the environmental movement in the US in the 1960s. In my opinion, what made the book so successful was not just the scientific findings, but the public recognition of those findings. In this sense, this documentary could actually be the Silent Spring of our generation.

At this point, I would like to say some (not strictly) final words on these three months’ blogging experiences. (I know there is a lonely part 1 in the series "Lessons From the Past" waiting for follow-ups, I am still looking for good documentaries; in fact, the experiences of the UK are briefly mentioned in Under the Dome.)

I really enjoyed writing this blog (except on days when I was stuck with my poor writing), and I hope you have enjoyed reading as well. I feel lucky that I was allowed to choose air pollution in China as the theme, a theme that I am interested in and can personally relate to, and I know more about the subject matter now than I first started. Yet still, approaching this vast and complex problem in just 15 posts is rather sketchy, and the more I study into it, the more I realise  how much I do not know. I started off thinking air pollution was a purely scientific problem, then a problem of law enforcement and finally, an economic problem. Both of which I am afraid I still know little about. But then if I were able to solve air pollution by writing this blog, I would not have been here at all :-P Therefore, I have decided to keep maintaining this blog, as I continue following China’s progress on combating air pollution. Maybe someday, I can even be part of it. The posts will appear less frequent and probably shorter as well. I also intend to incorporate more modelling components - so far I have presented the results of several studies based on modelling. I hope to be able to comment more on the modelling approach itself, as I proceed with my studies.

So thank you, my dear readers, for your support so far, do share your opinions on the subject matter and on my blog with me and, until next time!

War on Pollution, pt.2: Do We Stand a Chance?

In the previous post of this series, I explained that China has mostly relied on end-of-pipe technologies to address air pollution, such as desulfurisation and denitrification methods promoted in thermal power plants. Nevertheless, the potential of these end-of-pipe technologies is limited, once they have been universally adopted.

The ultimate solution, which deals with the root cause of air pollution, is to move away from fossil fuels and consume renewable energy. 

The first thing is to cap the most consumed, yet the dirtiest fuel type: coal. Also in that post, I mentioned that the Chinese government is planned to decrease the share of coal in primary energy consumption to below 65% by 2017 from around 67% in 2012, as stated in the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution (click here for full text; English version). This is the closest thing to a coal cap and it did not make it to the newly revised Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law, which means that it is not legally binding. Another problem is that this target value is not absolute. Given that the energy consumption is still growing, the actual amount of coal consumed could still be rising as well. 

There was an absolute target value in the Energy Development Strategy Action Plan, published in 2014: The annual coal consumption should peak by 2020 and be kept below 4.2 billion tonnes (Xinhua, 2014). In November 2015, however, the government admitted that China has actually been burning 17% more coal a year, which meant that the 4.2 billion tonnes goal was already reached in 2013 (see the following figure) (The New York Times, 2015). The new data certainly raises the concern that the peak would be higher. 

China stated in its Intended National Determined Contributions prior to COP21 that it will increase the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption to more than 10% (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). Natural gas undoubtedly belongs to the fossil fuels, but it is less carbon-intensive and also cleaner-burning: The combustion of natural gas produces less SO2 and particulate matter than coal, as well as less NOx than gasoline and diesel (Union of Concerned Scientists, n. d.). It is often believed to be a bridge fuel in the transition to zero-emission fuels (Forbes et al., 2014). 

Regarding the consumption of petroleum, there is no nationwide reduction targets. Several large cities have imposed restrictions on new car purchase through quotas on license plate, some have even announced to restrict private car use when pollution reaches certain levels (South China Morning Post, 2013). Alternative-fuel vehicles have been subsidised by both the central and local governments (EIA, 2014). 

China also intended to further develop non-fossil fuels and increase their share in the primary energy consumption to about 20% in total (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). Among the renewables, hydropower is by far the most widely exploited. Yet its capacity is restricted, as many rivers have already been heavily dammed and there are increasing concerns about the social and environmental consequences (Ecology Communications Group, 2013). The wind and solar energy market are expected to grow rapidly. China is now the world’s largest manufacturer of both wind turbines and solar photovoltaics.

To sum up, I believe that the current policies are set in the right direction, though they could be more ambitious. However, “it takes more than just weapons to win a war” (Zhang, Liu and Li, 2014, pp. 5334). Successful implementation of such policies requires execution and transparency, but first and foremost, a shift in priorities and perceptions: The cost of tackling air pollution could be huge, but so does the invisible cost of pollution on human health and productivity. Investments in cleaner air are not simply a brake to the economic growth, but could also be its new engine. 

This shift is simply put, but extremely hard to be made. The following video demonstrates the dilemma which many coal-mining regions, but probably also regions with coal-consuming heavy industries are facing: Coal is destroying people’s health and homes, while giving them a living. For me, it is a very emotional piece, as the old man appearing in the beginning and at the end comes from the same region and thus speaks exactly the same dialect as my grandfather, and looks a lot like him too. You cannot expect these ordinary miners to become employees in new industries at once. During a structural transformation, how are they going to make a living? How will the new profits be distributed? And who will bear the burden of rising prices of energy and other resources?

Now that China has officially declared “war” on pollution (said the Premier Li Keqiang in March, 2014), it is such issues that the government should focus on. If not well handled, there may not only be a short-term economic pain, but chronic social instability as well. 

Lessons From the Past, pt.1: California

Dear all, here is a short documentary on California's battle against air pollution. 

The smog in California in the mid 20th century was mostly comprised of O3. In present-day China, O3 often overtakes particulate matter as the primary pollutant during the summer months, when less coal is burnt. Tropospheric ozone is formed by the reaction of NOx, CO and volatile organic compounds (VOC) with sunlight, all of which are, to a large extent, linked to vehicle exhaust. With the coal cap in energy consumption and the expansion of the  automative market, the significance of O3 is expected to increase. 

California's precious experiences include coordination and cooperation between the state, local authorities ("air districts") and the academia, a strong government for enforcement as well as the involvement of the market mechanism and the public sector.