COP21 Watch, pt.2: What to Expect

In 2009 in Copenhagen (COP15), the countries agreed on keeping the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degree Celsius by 2100 at the latest, as IPCC predicted that surpassing this limit would cause serious consequences. This is equivalent to stabilising the greenhouse gas concentrations at about 445 to 490 ppm CO₂-equivalents (EEA, 2011), which means that we need to reduce emissions by 40-70% by 2050 and eventually achieve zero-emissions by 2100 (COP21, n.d.).

Also on that COP, it was decided that each party of the UNFCCC would communicate their intended actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under a new universal and binding agreement (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC) ahead of COP21. To achieve such an agreement after years of negotiations, which would enter into force in 2020, is the objective of COP 21.

According to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, a joint project of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), China overtook US as the world’s largest CO2 emitter in 2005. Last year, China’s emissions made up nearly 30% of the global emissions. China’s per capita CO2 emission, though ranked significantly lower, is rising rapidly as well. In 2012, it surpassed the per capita of the EU, while accounting for only 1/3 of it in 2000. Hence, China plays a critical role in mitigating climate change globally. 

So now let’s take a look at China’s intended contributions by 2030. The key points are summarised as follows:

1. To peak CO₂ emissions no later than 2030 ;
2. To reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% over the 2005 level;
3. To  increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to approx. 20%;
4. To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level.

Furthermore, China will establish a national Emissions Trading Scheme, having been experimenting with seven regional pilot carbon trading markets. It also pledges to establish a fund for South-South cooperation on climate change, but will not contribute to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), a mechanism within the framework of UNFCCC to support developing countries in mitigating and adapting climate change. Aiming to mobilise 100 billion USD per year by 2020, the Green Climate Fund has raised 10.2 billion from 38 countries (including some developing countries!) as of November 2015(GCF, 2015). 

China’s commitments, except the carbon intensity target(ratio of CO₂ emissions to GDP) have been rated by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) as medium (light grey shade in the following figure), i.e. they are “in the least stringent part of the 2 degree range” (CAT, 2015). If all countries adopted this position, warming would likely exceed 2 degree. The carbon intensity target of 60-65% reduction, however, is considered inconsistent with other targets. If implemented in insolation, it would lead to 1.6-3.3 Gt more CO₂ emissions in 2030 (dark grey shade). CAT thus rated this single target as inadequate and suggested a 70% reduction instead to close the gap (CAT, 2015).

Source: CAT, 2015.

So besides China, what to expect of other countries? According to a synthesis report by UNFCCC (2015), which is based on the INDCs of 147 parties (75% of all parties and 86% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010) submitted by 1 October 2015, the aggregated effect does not look optimistic:

Source: UNFCCC, 2015.

The figure above predicts the global emission levels resulting from the implementation of INDCs in 2025 and 2030 (yellow bars) and compare these with the business-as-usual scenario (red) and enhanced mitigation scenarios for a least-cost trajectory to keep the warming below 2 degree (starting today in dark blue, by 2020 in medium blue and by 2030 in light blue). It is evident that the estimated emission levels do not fall within those 2 degree scenario levels. In fact, it would be higher by 8.7 Gt CO₂ equivalent in 2025 and by 15.1 Gt in 2030 (UNFCCC, 2015).

I understand that this outcome is partially due to negotiation strategies - You do not want to play your best cards too early. Thus, five days into COP21, with intense negotiations running at this very moment, I would like to quote François Hollande from his speech on the Leaders Event as closing remarks (the quote has been reformulated by Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of UNFCCC):

“The greatest threat is not that we aim too high and miss. The greatest danger is that we aim too low and only do that.”

And hopefully, the next time I write about COP21, it would sound a bit less depressing.