In the previous post of this series, I explained that China has mostly relied on end-of-pipe technologies to address air pollution, such as desulfurisation and denitrification methods promoted in thermal power plants. Nevertheless, the potential of these end-of-pipe technologies is limited, once they have been universally adopted.
The ultimate solution, which deals with the root cause of air pollution, is to move away from fossil fuels and consume renewable energy.
The first thing is to cap the most consumed, yet the dirtiest fuel type: coal. Also in that post, I mentioned that the Chinese government is planned to decrease the share of coal in primary energy consumption to below 65% by 2017 from around 67% in 2012, as stated in the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution (click here for full text; English version). This is the closest thing to a coal cap and it did not make it to the newly revised Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law, which means that it is not legally binding. Another problem is that this target value is not absolute. Given that the energy consumption is still growing, the actual amount of coal consumed could still be rising as well.
There was an absolute target value in the Energy Development Strategy Action Plan, published in 2014: The annual coal consumption should peak by 2020 and be kept below 4.2 billion tonnes (Xinhua, 2014). In November 2015, however, the government admitted that China has actually been burning 17% more coal a year, which meant that the 4.2 billion tonnes goal was already reached in 2013 (see the following figure) (The New York Times, 2015). The new data certainly raises the concern that the peak would be higher.
China stated in its Intended National Determined Contributions prior to COP21 that it will increase the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption to more than 10% (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). Natural gas undoubtedly belongs to the fossil fuels, but it is less carbon-intensive and also cleaner-burning: The combustion of natural gas produces less SO2 and particulate matter than coal, as well as less NOx than gasoline and diesel (Union of Concerned Scientists, n. d.). It is often believed to be a bridge fuel in the transition to zero-emission fuels (Forbes et al., 2014).
Regarding the consumption of petroleum, there is no nationwide reduction targets. Several large cities have imposed restrictions on new car purchase through quotas on license plate, some have even announced to restrict private car use when pollution reaches certain levels (South China Morning Post, 2013). Alternative-fuel vehicles have been subsidised by both the central and local governments (EIA, 2014).
China also intended to further develop non-fossil fuels and increase their share in the primary energy consumption to about 20% in total (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). Among the renewables, hydropower is by far the most widely exploited. Yet its capacity is restricted, as many rivers have already been heavily dammed and there are increasing concerns about the social and environmental consequences (Ecology Communications Group, 2013). The wind and solar energy market are expected to grow rapidly. China is now the world’s largest manufacturer of both wind turbines and solar photovoltaics.
To sum up, I believe that the current policies are set in the right direction, though they could be more ambitious. However, “it takes more than just weapons to win a war” (Zhang, Liu and Li, 2014, pp. 5334). Successful implementation of such policies requires execution and transparency, but first and foremost, a shift in priorities and perceptions: The cost of tackling air pollution could be huge, but so does the invisible cost of pollution on human health and productivity. Investments in cleaner air are not simply a brake to the economic growth, but could also be its new engine.
This shift is simply put, but extremely hard to be made. The following video demonstrates the dilemma which many coal-mining regions, but probably also regions with coal-consuming heavy industries are facing: Coal is destroying people’s health and homes, while giving them a living. For me, it is a very emotional piece, as the old man appearing in the beginning and at the end comes from the same region and thus speaks exactly the same dialect as my grandfather, and looks a lot like him too. You cannot expect these ordinary miners to become employees in new industries at once. During a structural transformation, how are they going to make a living? How will the new profits be distributed? And who will bear the burden of rising prices of energy and other resources?
Now that China has officially declared “war” on pollution (said the Premier Li Keqiang in March, 2014), it is such issues that the government should focus on. If not well handled, there may not only be a short-term economic pain, but chronic social instability as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment